/climate

Climate change and energy transition as drivers of change

The unavoidable warming and potential substantial departures from prevailing global weather patterns associated with climate change are likely to be major drivers of migration, agriculture, and international trade. The transformation of the energy system necessary to reduce emissions to levels consistent with a stable climate have direct and potentially powerful implications for the nature of infrastructure investment, agriculture, and trade. Infrastructure is directly implicated in terms of power sector investment, and transportation infrastructure investment has direct implications for energy consumption patterns and efficiency of energy use.

This Work Stream will shed light upon the nexus of climate change, infrastructure, migration, agriculture, trade, and energy. Climate change and energy transitions will serve as principal drivers of the research within this framework while exploring the linkages to infrastructure migration, agriculture, and trade. Concretely, the Work Stream will seek to contribute to:

  • South African and regional climate change adaptation policies
  • Energy policies and programmes — including national energy generation build plans and associated transmission infrastructure as well as regional approaches to meeting energy needs
  • The ongoing land reform programme in South Africa
  • The understanding of the implications of migration — with an initial emphasis on regional migration — for economic outcomes


 

Working paper
Chuma Innocent Mbaleki
This study employs an autoregressive distributed lag model to investigate the long-run and short-run economic growth impacts of the public service wage bill in South Africa. The annual time series data used ranges from 1983...
May 2021
Climate and energy
Working paper
Bruno Merven, Faaiqa Hartley, Andrew Marquard, Fadiel Ahjum, Jesse Burton, Alison Hughes, Gregory Ireland, Bryce McCall and Jules Schers
The Paris Agreement calls for a reduction in global emissions to limit the global temperature increase in this century to 2oC (above preindustrial levels), while pursuing the means to limit the increase to 1.5oC. This...
May 2021
Climate and energy
Working paper
Joan Halstein
This paper simulates the long-term implications of skilled labour emigration for South Africa, using a recursive dynamic general equilibrium framework. It examines the effects of skilled emigration with or without offsetting measures, specifically the projected...
April 2021
Climate and energy
News
SA-TIED
During the months of April, May, and June, the SA-TIED programme will host six online policy dialogues as part of our SA-TIED Dialogues – Research into Policy series.
March 2021
Enterprise development
Public revenue
Macro modelling
Inequality
Climate and energy
Regional growth
Policy Brief
by Leonard le Roux and Johanna Choumert-Nkolo
Modern energy access is an important necessary condition for long-term economic development. This work presents a first analysis of the relationship between rural-urban migration and energy poverty in South Africa, using the National Income Dynamics...
February 2021
Climate and energy
Working paper
Leonard le Roux and Johanna Choumert-Nkolo
Despite recent progress, energy poverty remains pervasive in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This challenge is generally more severe in rural areas. However, rapid urbanization adds a significant challenge to often under-capacitated urban local authorities that struggle...
February 2021
Climate and energy
Policy Brief
by Faaiqa Hartley, Sherwin Gabriel, James Cullis and Channing Arndt
Climate change poses significant challenges to economic development and welfare. Increased temperature and reduced rainfall are likely to have a negative impact in regions heavily dependent on rainfed agriculture. Wide variations in agricultural value added...
February 2021
Climate and energy
Research seminar
17 Feb 2021 / 16:00 to 17:00
Climate and energy
On 17 February the SA-TIED programme will host an online seminar on climate change and central banking in South Africa. The presentation will be given by Faaiqa Hartley and Sherwin Gabriel under the SA-TIED project...
Policy Brief
by Channing Arndt, Christopher Loewald, and Konstantin Makrelov
Climate change poses significant risks and challenges. Many of these have implications for price and financial stability and thus fall within the mandates of central banks. These risks and challenges are likely to be more...
February 2021
Climate and energy
Working paper
Faaiqa Hartley, Sherwin Gabriel, James Cullis and Channing Arndt
Climate change poses a serious threat to many countries, particularly to developing countries, which often have large sections of the population without resources to adapt to changes in their environment. One of the key ways...
February 2021
Climate and energy
Policy Brief
by Bruno Merven, Gregory Ireland, Faaiqa Hartley, Channing Arndt, Alison Hughes, Fadiel Ahjum, Bryce McCall, and Tara Caetano
South Africa’s coal resource has historically provided a source of abundant and cheap energy for South Africa and currently supplies most of its primary energy. Given its aging coal power plant fleet, and international commitments...
November 2020
Climate and energy