Research seminar

As a part of the SA-TIED Seminar Series, researchers from the work stream on Public revenue mobilization for inclusive development will present the research findings of their recent working paper on South Africa's VAT increase and VAT zero-rating policy.

15 May 2019
public_revenue
In the media
Timothy Shipp

A study by Simone Schotte, Rocco Zizzamia, and Murray Leibbrandt was cited in The Economist, 25 April 2019 print edition; the article is available online under the title Cyril Ramaphosa faces a daunting task if he wins South Africa’s election. The study cited was first released in the journal World Development entitled ‘A poverty dynamics...

24 May 2019
inequality
Working paper
SA-TIED Working Paper #61
by Rob Davies and Dirk van Seventer

This paper introduces a framework of advisory basic principles to be employed by users of economy-wide models such as those used in policy analysis in South Africa and in SA-TIED papers.

15 May 2019
macroeconomics
Working paper
SA-TIED Working Paper #60
by Bruno Merven, Faaiqa Hartley, and Fadiel Ahjum

Road freight transport is the key channel for moving goods and services within South Africa, accounting for more than 70% of the total freight payload over the last decade. While not the largest contributor to emissions in the country, the sector contributes a sizeable proportion of total emissions (>10%), due to its dependence on fossil...

15 May 2019
climate
Working paper
SA-TIED Working Paper #59
Ihsaan Bassier

Using administrative tax records from South Africa for the period 2011–14, I find that firm wage premia explain 25 per cent of the total wage variance, 60 per cent of the gender wage gap, and 40 per cent of the gap between workers in the middle and the bottom of the income distribution. Next, I argue that in contrast to the rent-sharing...

15 May 2019
inequality
Working paper
SA-TIED Working Paper #58
by Justin Visagie and Ivan Turok

Services are the fastest growing portion of world trade and now account for nearly a quarter of global exports. This presents opportunities for emerging economies to adapt and enter new markets. Many countries in southern Africa have struggled to diversify from a heavy reliance on primary commodities towards manufacturing industries. Tradable...

15 May 2019
regional_growth
Working paper
SA-TIED Working Paper #57
by Sithembiso Mtanga and Richard McCamel

This paper provides an overview of the structure, key functions, and characteristics of the motorcycle parts and aftermarket industries in Southern Africa in order to identify challenges to and opportunities for growth in these industries. The research examines the end markets and utilization of motorcycles, the status of these markets, and...

15 May 2019
regional_growth
Vacancy
Vacancy - Research Assistant

UNU-WIDER is looking for an outstanding individual with strong commitment and potential to contribute to the SA-TIED programme. Station: National Treasury, Pretoria, South Africa. Closing date: 26 May 2019 at 23:59 UTC+3

24 April 2019
enterprise_development
public_revenue
inequality
Journal Article
SA-TIED Working Paper #55
by Channing Arndt, Amy Dale, Patrick Hatzenbuehler, Jordan Kyle, Innocent Matshe, Adam Schlosser, and Emily Schmidt

We argue that vastly improved agricultural production forecasts and estimates in SSA fit within an emerging view of information as a key input into the development process. We assess the current quality and timeliness of agricultural production data, finding both quality and timeliness to be inadequate. These inadequacies persist despite...

05 April 2019
climate
In the media
SA-TIED researcher Bryce McCall appears on SABC news
by SA-TIED

A new working paper from the SA-TIED programme has made headlines in South Africa. A research team under SA-TIED's work stream on climate and energy had used similar modelling techniques to those used by the South African government for its draft Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), which outlines the country's energy needs and how best to meet them...

02 April 2019
climate
News
Press Release: South Africa could have cheaper, cleaner, and more reliable energy supply
by SA-TIED / ERC

Phasing out coal in the power sector by 2040 would allow SA to fulfil its commitment to the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to well below 2° C without significant impact on the economy.These are some of the main findings of a new SA-TIED study undertaken by the University of Cape Town’s Energy Research Centre (ERC). The ERC study is an...

28 March 2019
climate
Working paper
SA-TIED Working Paper #54
by Amina Ebrahim and Kezia Lilenstein

This paper has three primary objectives. First, it provides a broad overview of the available South African data used to examine gender in the labour market, with specific reference to the South African Revenue Services (SARS) tax data which has recently been made available. Second, the paper provides a brief overview of the existing South...

28 March 2019
inequality
Working paper
SA-TIED Working Paper #53
by Aroop Chatterjee

Understanding wealth inequality has unique significance in South Africa. The co-existence of extreme poverty and extreme wealth is starkly visible. Apartheid-era inequality has persisted despite more than 20 years of democracy. Much of the research on inequality has focussed on inequality of income and of opportunities. There is a large gap in...

28 March 2019
inequality
Working paper
SA-TIED Working Paper #52
by Goodness Aye and Laurence Harris

The study investigates the effect of real exchange rate volatility on the distribution of income between labour and capital in South Africa. Both symmetric and asymmetric effects were considered. Using quarterly data from 1985:1 to 2018:3 and local linear projection method, we found that the immediate response of labour’s income share to a one...

28 March 2019
macroeconomics
Working paper
SA-TIED Working Paper #51
by Rob Davies, Laurence Harris, and Konstantin Makrelov

We employ a micro founded and stock and flow consistent model in the tradition of Backus et al. (1980) to study the impact of higher leverage ratio on the South African economy. The model provides for a richer representation of institutional balance sheets than existing models. The financial sector’s behaviour draws on the recent theoretical...

28 March 2019
macroeconomics
Working paper
SA-TIED Working Paper #50
Keagile Lesame

Monetary policy is believed to have a disproportionate effect on firms depending on their size. Financially constrained firms with limited access to capital markets are expected to be more sensitive to changes in interest rates and this category of firms is characteristic of small-sized firms. This paper empirically tests this hypothesis for...

28 March 2019
macroeconomics
Working paper
SA-TIED Working Paper #49
by Alfred Moyo

This paper investigates whether Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries that are vulnerable to changes in oil prices could instead substitute oil and petroleum products with biofuels and gas from within the region. A pooled mean group estimator was used to determine the impact of oil prices on the gross domestic product (GDP) of...

28 March 2019
regional_growth
Working paper
SA-TIED Working Paper #48
Ciaran Driver

I provide a retrospective assessment of the effects of trade policies on South African manufacturing since the transition to democracy, examining the differences and commonalities in the views of economists in favour and against an acceleration of trade liberalisation. Data from the Bureau of Economic Research are used to test a number of...

28 March 2019
macroeconomics
Working paper
SA-TIED Working Paper #47
by Maleshoane Majara

In spite of existence of trade arrangements including that of having a common market, trade patterns are low within EAC. Thus, the record of trade among members has been a sobering one when in comparison with trade records of other trading blocs in Asia, Latin America and Europe (World Economic Forum, 2016). According to EAC 2016 report, trade...

27 March 2019
regional_growth
Working paper
SA-TIED Working Paper #46
by Pieter Naude Scribante

This paper combines the economics conflict deterrence literature with the robust literature on economic integration agreements, connecting the once separate fields. This paper uses the gravity model on a panel dataset containing all of the bilateral country-pairs in the world, between 1976 and 2010, and finds evidence in favour of the...

27 March 2019
regional_growth
Working paper
SA-TIED Working Paper #45
by Lisa-Cheree Martin

This study employs traditional autoregressive and vector autoregressive forecasting models, as well as machine learning methods of forecasting, in order to compare the performance of each of these techniques. Each technique is used to forecast the percentage change of quarterly South African Gross Domestic Product, quarter-on-quarter. It is...

27 March 2019
macroeconomics
Working paper
SA-TIED Working Paper #44
by Sechaba Mokobane

In the study, I use the Boone indicator to explore competition dynamics in the South African loan market. Using a standard pooled OLS estimation, I find that competition in the loan market has been improving for most of the period between 2006 and 2016. Between 2006 and 2014 the trend is upwards before reversing between 2014 and 2015 and then...

27 March 2019
macroeconomics
Working paper
SA-TIED Working Paper #43
by Bongani Chiliza

This paper sets out to ascertain the appropriateness of the Basel III macro-prudential policy mechanisms as South African (SA) bank distance-to-default (DTD) determinants. Using a hybrid model embedded within a linear dynamic panel-data estimation technique, the author finds that whilst controlling for both macro- and micro-economic bank...

27 March 2019
macroeconomics
Working paper
SA-TIED Working Paper #42
by Panashe Paul Mazungunye

Various policies are being implemented in Tanzania to expand the agro-processing sector. The study evaluates the role that agro-processing activities can play in industrialization and economic transformation of the Tanzanian economy and the impact of policies. The study employs a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model to assess...

27 March 2019
regional_growth
Working paper
SA-TIED Working Paper #41
Channing Arndt, Rob Davies, and James Thurlow

South Africa faces many challenges, including modest economic growth and negative structural change, as well as high unemployment and inequality, and persistent poverty. Urbanization over the last two decades is an additional concern. Migration and population growth are highest in metropolitan areas and, even though poverty is more pronounced...

27 March 2019
climate
Journal Article
SA-TIED Working Paper #40
by Aumashvini Gobin, Debbie Sparks, John Okedi, Neil Armitage, and Fadiel Ahjum

South Africa has been facing significant challenges in meeting demands in its water and energy sectors in recent years and planning for both sectors has mostly been done separately. The City of Cape Town has started to supplement its dwindling conventional freshwater supplies with groundwater, wastewater and seawater, in light of the drought...

26 March 2019
climate
Working paper
SA-TIED Working Paper #39
by Jamie McGraw

This paper concerns the exploration of the efficiency effects of regional economic integration at the level of each member country. In specific, the question addressed is: does regional economic integration improve the economic efficiency of member countries? This broad question is narrowed down by focusing on the Southern African Development...

26 March 2019
regional_growth
Working paper
SA-TIED Working Paper #38
by Anthony Black, Lawrence Edwards, Faizel Ismail, Brian Makundi, and Mike Morris

Regional integration is making steady progress in Africa and a key objective is to improve the prospects for industrialisation by expanding the regional market. The paper draws on a combination of trade data analysis and industry case studies to better understand the links and synergies between regional value chains and regional integration....

26 March 2019
regional_growth
Working paper
SA-TIED Working Paper #37
by Amina Ebrahim and Jukka Pirttilä

The paper examines the incidence and employment impacts of the Employment Tax Incentive, a South African wage subsidy system that is targeted at the employers of low-wage youth. The paper uses a triple differences strategy and survey and administrative data, covering the universe of South African workers. The results reveal that the system has...

26 March 2019
public_revenue
Working paper
SA-TIED Working Paper 36
by Amina Ebrahim and Chris Axelson

The availability of anonymized individual tax return data can contribute to a deeper understanding of the drivers behind the high levels of inequality and unemployment in South Africa. In the recent past, researchers have examined either payroll or personal income tax data. This paper explains the methodology behind the creation of an...

25 March 2019
public_revenue