Macroeconomic modelling for policy formulation

National Treasury (NT) is central to macroeconomic policy in South Africa and holds a key role in maintaining macroeconomic stability around an achievable path of growing output capacity. This work stream is designed to further strengthen the capacity of NT, alongside other actors in the region, and to analyse macroeconomic developments and policy options in southern Africa.

Work on macroeconomic simulation models will be undertaken alongside separate studies related to macroeconomic stability, e.g. fiscal and monetary policies, exchange rate competitiveness, and exchange rate volatility. Two central policy objectives underlie and run through the work stream: raising South Africa’s sustainable growth rate and reducing inequality in South Africa.

The research is focused on five broad areas of policy focus

  • fiscal policy
  • monetary policy
  • public investment and debts
  • regional policy
  • core policy analysis models of South African economy

Each area will engage junior NT officials as team members working jointly with the UNU-WIDER and NT team leaders on the respective topics.

Working paper
SA-TIED Working Paper #50
Keagile Lesame
Monetary policy is believed to have a disproportionate effect on firms depending on their size. Financially constrained firms with limited access to...
28 March 2019
macroeconomics
Working paper
SA-TIED Working Paper #48
Ciaran Driver
I provide a retrospective assessment of the effects of trade policies on South African manufacturing since the transition to democracy, examining the...
28 March 2019
macroeconomics
Working paper
SA-TIED Working Paper #45
by Lisa-Cheree Martin
This study employs traditional autoregressive and vector autoregressive forecasting models, as well as machine learning methods of forecasting, in...
27 March 2019
macroeconomics
Working paper
SA-TIED Working Paper #44
by Sechaba Mokobane
In the study, I use the Boone indicator to explore competition dynamics in the South African loan market. Using a standard pooled OLS estimation, I...
27 March 2019
macroeconomics
Working paper
SA-TIED Working Paper #43
by Bongani Chiliza
This paper sets out to ascertain the appropriateness of the Basel III macro-prudential policy mechanisms as South African (SA) bank distance-to-...
27 March 2019
macroeconomics
Working paper
Channing Arndt, Rob Davies, and James Thurlow
South Africa faces many challenges, including modest economic growth and negative structural change, as well as high unemployment and inequality, and...
27 March 2019
macroeconomics
climate
Working paper
SA-TIED Working Paper #35
by Dirk Van Seventer, Shannon Bold, Sherwin Gabriel, and Rob Davies
This paper documents the construction of a South African Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for the year 2015. The SAM is built using a Statistics South...
25 March 2019
macroeconomics
Working paper
SA-TIED Working Paper 25
by Rob Davies, Marko Kwaramba, and Dirk van Seventer
This paper documents the construction of a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Zimbabwe in 2013. The SAM was built using National Accounts data from...
30 December 2018
macroeconomics
Technical workshop
This workshop is part of the capacity-building initiatives of the Macroeconomic modelling for policy formulation work stream. It will engage Nation
26 November 2018
macroeconomics
Working paper
SA-TIED Working Paper 20
by Manqoba Ntshakala and Laurence Harris
This study contributes to the existing body of knowledge within the South African context by empirically examining the ability of the yield spread to...
27 June 2018
macroeconomics
Working paper
By Bruno Merven, Gregory Ireland, Faaiqa Hartley, Channing Arndt, Alison Hughes, Fadiel Ahjum, Bryce McCall, and Tara Caetano
This paper lays the foundation for the analysis of the macro- and socio-economic benefits of a transition in the power sector to be made using a...
20 June 2018
macroeconomics
climate
Working paper
SA-TIED Working Paper 14
by Lauralyn Kaziboni
This paper analyses responses from the City of Johannesburg survey on economic performance, competitiveness and the challenges faced, from over 300...
28 May 2018
macroeconomics