Macroeconomic modelling for policy formulation

National Treasury (NT) is central to macroeconomic policy in South Africa and holds a key role in maintaining macroeconomic stability around an achievable path of growing output capacity. This work stream is designed to further strengthen the capacity of NT, alongside other actors in the region, and to analyse macroeconomic developments and policy options in southern Africa.

Work on macroeconomic simulation models will be undertaken alongside separate studies related to macroeconomic stability, e.g. fiscal and monetary policies, exchange rate competitiveness, and exchange rate volatility. Two central policy objectives underlie and run through the work stream: raising South Africa’s sustainable growth rate and reducing inequality in South Africa.

The research is focused on five broad areas of policy focus

  • fiscal policy
  • monetary policy
  • public investment and debts
  • regional policy
  • core policy analysis models of South African economy

Each area will engage junior NT officials as team members working jointly with the UNU-WIDER and NT team leaders on the respective topics.

Policy Brief
Harri Kemp and Hylton Hollander
Much of the research on the impact of fiscal policy shocks on macroeconomic outcomes (e.g., fiscal multipliers) uses reduced-form modelling...
30 July 2020
macroeconomics
In the media
A stringent lockdown in South Africa came into effect on 26 March 2020 and shut down most sectors of the economy.
29 July 2020
macroeconomics
climate
Policy Brief
Harri Kemp and Hylton Hollander
23 July 2020
macroeconomics
Working paper
SA-TIED Working Paper 128
Johannes Hermanus Kemp and Hylton Hollander
Much of the research on fiscal multipliers has used reduced form modelling approaches.
10 July 2020
macroeconomics
Working paper
SA-TIED Working Paper 127
Johannes Hermanus Kemp
Despite the frequent use of fiscal policy for stabilization purposes and the important role fiscal activism has played over the last decade, the si
10 July 2020
macroeconomics
Working paper
Serena Merrino
This paper aims at providing new evidence over the effect of conventional monetary policy shocks on wage inequality through the earnings heterogene
09 July 2020
macroeconomics
Project meeting
The SA-TIED macroeconomic modelling for policy formulation work stream h
01 July 2020
macroeconomics
Technical note
SA-TIED Technical Note 1: Modelling the effects of COVID-19 on the South African economy - a technical guide to the scenario builder
Rob Davies and Dirk van Seventer
There is a demand for quick studies evaluating the economic impact of the lockdowns used by many governments to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic.
14 May 2020
macroeconomics
Working paper
Impact of Covid-19 on the South African economy - An initial analysis
Channing Arndt, Rob Davies, Sherwin Gabriel, Laurence Harris, Konstantin Makrelov, Boipuso Modise, Sherman Robinson, Witness Simbanegavi, Dirk van Seventer, and Lillian Anderson
This paper reports ‘first pass’ estimates of the costs of the lock-down implemented by the South African government beginning on 27 March 2020. It...
30 April 2020
macroeconomics
climate
Working paper
Measuring labour earnings inequality in post-apartheid South Africa
Serena Merrino
This paper investigates the validity of household survey data published by Statistics South Africa since 1993 and later integrated into the Post-...
23 March 2020
macroeconomics
Working paper
Labour market polarization in South Africa - A decomposition analysis
Rob Davies and Dirk van Seventer
There is evidence from developed countries that technical change affects not only the employment intensity of production, but also the occupational...
18 March 2020
macroeconomics
Project meeting
SA-TIED held a work in progress meeting for the work stream on M
17 December 2019
macroeconomics