Macroeconomic modelling for policy formulation

National Treasury (NT) is central to macroeconomic policy in South Africa and holds a key role in maintaining macroeconomic stability around an achievable path of growing output capacity. This work stream is designed to further strengthen the capacity of NT, alongside other actors in the region, and to analyse macroeconomic developments and policy options in southern Africa.

Work on macroeconomic simulation models will be undertaken alongside separate studies related to macroeconomic stability, e.g. fiscal and monetary policies, exchange rate competitiveness, and exchange rate volatility. Two central policy objectives underlie and run through the work stream: raising South Africa’s sustainable growth rate and reducing inequality in South Africa.

The research is focused on five broad areas of policy focus

  • fiscal policy
  • monetary policy
  • public investment and debts
  • regional policy
  • core policy analysis models of South African economy

Each area will engage junior NT officials as team members working jointly with the UNU-WIDER and NT team leaders on the respective topics.

Project meeting
The SA-TIED macroeconomic modelling for policy formulation work stream h
01 July 2020
macroeconomics
Technical note
SA-TIED Technical Note 1: Modelling the effects of COVID-19 on the South African economy - a technical guide to the scenario builder
Rob Davies and Dirk van Seventer
There is a demand for quick studies evaluating the economic impact of the lockdowns used by many governments to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic.
14 May 2020
macroeconomics
Working paper
Impact of Covid-19 on the South African economy - An initial analysis
Channing Arndt, Rob Davies, Sherwin Gabriel, Laurence Harris, Konstantin Makrelov, Boipuso Modise, Sherman Robinson, Witness Simbanegavi, Dirk van Seventer, and Lillian Anderson
This paper reports ‘first pass’ estimates of the costs of the lock-down implemented by the South African government beginning on 27 March 2020. It...
30 April 2020
macroeconomics
climate
Working paper
Measuring labour earnings inequality in post-apartheid South Africa
Serena Merrino
This paper investigates the validity of household survey data published by Statistics South Africa since 1993 and later integrated into the Post-...
23 March 2020
macroeconomics
Working paper
Labour market polarization in South Africa - A decomposition analysis
Rob Davies and Dirk van Seventer
There is evidence from developed countries that technical change affects not only the employment intensity of production, but also the occupational...
18 March 2020
macroeconomics
Project meeting
SA-TIED held a work in progress meeting for the work stream on M
17 December 2019
macroeconomics
Technical workshop
SA-TIED will hold a 5-day modelling course for staff from the National Treasury, Department of Performance Monitoring and Evaluation, Department of
16 December 2019
macroeconomics
In the media
In speech to parliament, Finance Minister praises SA-TIED
by SA-TIED
During a speech to parliament on Tuesday, South Africa’s Finance Minister, Tito Mboweni, discussed the important work being carried out by the...
12 December 2019
enterprise_development
public_revenue
macroeconomics
inequality
climate
regional_growth
Journal Article
By Konstantin Makrelov, Channing Arndt, Rob Davies, and Laurence Harris
We analyse implications of financial sector dynamics for fiscal expenditure multipliers in recessionary conditions. A new stock-flow consistent model...
29 October 2019
macroeconomics
Request for research proposals
Request for Research Proposals - Macroeconomic Analysis
by SA-TIED
United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER), together with its partners, now invites research proposals...
10 October 2019
macroeconomics
Working paper
SA-TIED Working Paper #74
by Dirk van Seventer and Rob Davies
Examining the economy-wide consequences of South Africa following a similar trajectory of labour market polarization to the rest of the world...
30 September 2019
macroeconomics
Vacancy
SA-TIED
The United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER), together with its partners, now invites interested pa
06 September 2019
enterprise_development
public_revenue
macroeconomics
inequality
climate
regional_growth