/macroeconomics

Macroeconomic modelling for policy formulation

National Treasury (NT) is central to macroeconomic policy in South Africa and holds a key role in maintaining macroeconomic stability around an achievable path of growing output capacity. This work stream is designed to further strengthen the capacity of NT, alongside other actors in the region, and to analyse macroeconomic developments and policy options in southern Africa.

Work on macroeconomic simulation models will be undertaken alongside separate studies related to macroeconomic stability, e.g. fiscal and monetary policies, exchange rate competitiveness, and exchange rate volatility. Two central policy objectives underlie and run through the work stream: raising South Africa’s sustainable growth rate and reducing inequality in South Africa.

The research is focused on five broad areas of policy focus

  • fiscal policy
  • monetary policy
  • public investment and debts
  • regional policy
  • core policy analysis models of South African economy

Each area will engage junior NT officials as team members working jointly with the UNU-WIDER and NT team leaders on the respective topics.

Research seminar
19 Jan 2021 / 15:00 to 16:00
Macro modelling
On 19 January the SA-TIED programme hosted an online seminar on petrol price regulation, as well as the impact on the South African economy of alternative regulatory arrangements in the petroleum sector. The presentation was...
Research Brief
by SA-TIED
Monetary policy affects the real economy through various channels, including the interest rate, exchange rate, credit, and asset price channels. The credit channel has recently received considerable attention. Small firms are more sensitive to changes...
November 2020
Macro modelling
Working paper
Rod Crompton, Midesh Sing, Vernon Filter, and Nonhlanhla Msimango
The South African liquid fuels industry is a significant part of the economy. Historically, government policy focused on import substitution industrialization to support industry margins. This approach is called into question by the 2006 shift...
October 2020
Macro modelling
Working paper
Rob Davies and Dirk van Seventer
Technical change impacts both the employment intensity of production and the composition of occupations and skills of employment. Artificial intelligence, automation, and robots are already leading to machines undertaking routinizable tasks previously carried out by...
October 2020
Macro modelling
Research Brief
by SA-TIED
Much work has been done on inequality in South Africa, but to date the literature that assesses the dynamic response of income or wealth distribution to economic policy actions is almost non-existent. This information gap...
October 2020
Macro modelling