/climate

Climate change and energy transition as drivers of change

The unavoidable warming and potential substantial departures from prevailing global weather patterns associated with climate change are likely to be major drivers of migration, agriculture, and international trade. The transformation of the energy system necessary to reduce emissions to levels consistent with a stable climate have direct and potentially powerful implications for the nature of infrastructure investment, agriculture, and trade. Infrastructure is directly implicated in terms of power sector investment, and transportation infrastructure investment has direct implications for energy consumption patterns and efficiency of energy use.

This Work Stream will shed light upon the nexus of climate change, infrastructure, migration, agriculture, trade, and energy. Climate change and energy transitions will serve as principal drivers of the research within this framework while exploring the linkages to infrastructure migration, agriculture, and trade. Concretely, the Work Stream will seek to contribute to:

  • South African and regional climate change adaptation policies
  • Energy policies and programmes — including national energy generation build plans and associated transmission infrastructure as well as regional approaches to meeting energy needs
  • The ongoing land reform programme in South Africa
  • The understanding of the implications of migration — with an initial emphasis on regional migration — for economic outcomes


 

Working paper
Bernard Tembo, Sydney Sihubwa, Ignatius Masilokwa, Mulima Nyambe-Mubanga
This study uses an integrated approach to analyse the impacts of climate change on Zambia’s electricity supply and general economy, considering two global climate policy scenarios: Unconstrained emissions (UCE), without effective policies to limit emissions...
September 2020
Climate and energy
Working paper
Lourenço Manuel, Emílio Tostão, Orcidia Vilanculos, Gaby Mandlhate, and Faaiqa Hartley
Mozambique has been historically prone to natural disasters due to its geographical location, but over the past 20 years, the intensity and frequency of droughts, floods and cyclones has increased, negatively affecting the agriculture sector...
September 2020
Climate and energy
Working paper
Bhekani Sandile Zondo
This study evaluates the determinants of adoption and use intensity of organic fertilizer among smallholder potato farmers using primary data collected from 189 smallholder farmers in three municipal areas in KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa, using...
September 2020
Climate and energy
Journal Article
Channing Arndt, Rob Davies, Sherwin Gabriel, Laurence Harris, Konstantin Makrelov, Sherman Robinson, Stephanie Levy, Witness Simbanegavi, Dirk van Seventer, and Lillian Anderson
Absent vaccines and pharmaceutical interventions, the only tool available to mitigate its demographic effects is some measure of physical distancing, to reduce contagion by breaking social and economic contacts. Policy makers must balance the positive...
July 2020
Climate and energy
In the media
A stringent lockdown in South Africa came into effect on 26 March 2020 and shut down most sectors of the economy. New SA-TIED research on the impact of COVID-19 on the South African economy estimates...
July 2020
Macro modelling
Climate and energy
Blog
Channing Arndt and Sherman Robinson
In trying to limit the spread of COVID-19, policymakers globally have the difficult task of balancing the positive health effects of lockdowns against their economic costs, particularly the burdens lockdowns impose on low-income and food-insecure...
June 2020
Climate and energy
Working paper
Channing Arndt, Rob Davies, Sherwin Gabriel, Laurence Harris, Konstantin Makrelov, Boipuso Modise, Sherman Robinson, Witness Simbanegavi, Dirk van Seventer, and Lillian Anderson
This paper reports ‘first pass’ estimates of the costs of the lock-down implemented by the South African government beginning on 27 March 2020. It also presents a series of recovery scenarios. Four channels by which...
April 2020
Macro modelling
Climate and energy
Working paper
Ralf Seppelt, Channing Arndt, Michael Beckmann, Emily A. Martin, and Tom Hertel
Without large changes in consumption as well as sharp reductions of food waste and post-harvest losses, agricultural production must grow to meet future food demands. The variety of concepts and policies relating to yield increases...
April 2020
Climate and energy