Climate change and energy transition as drivers of change

The unavoidable warming and potential substantial departures from prevailing global weather patterns associated with climate change are likely to be major drivers of migration, agriculture, and international trade. The transformation of the energy system necessary to reduce emissions to levels consistent with a stable climate have direct and potentially powerful implications for the nature of infrastructure investment, agriculture, and trade. Infrastructure is directly implicated in terms of power sector investment, and transportation infrastructure investment has direct implications for energy consumption patterns and efficiency of energy use.

This Work Stream will shed light upon the nexus of climate change, infrastructure, migration, agriculture, trade, and energy. Climate change and energy transitions will serve as principal drivers of the research within this framework while exploring the linkages to infrastructure migration, agriculture, and trade. Concretely, the Work Stream will seek to contribute to:

  • South African and regional climate change adaptation policies
  • Energy policies and programmes — including national energy generation build plans and associated transmission infrastructure as well as regional approaches to meeting energy needs
  • The ongoing land reform programme in South Africa
  • The understanding of the implications of migration — with an initial emphasis on regional migration — for economic outcomes


 

In the media
A stringent lockdown in South Africa came into effect on 26 March 2020 and shut down most sectors of the economy.
29 July 2020
macroeconomics
climate
Working paper
Bruno Merven, Faaiqa Hartley, Jules Schers and Fadiel Ahjum
This paper presents an alternative methodology to modelling private transport in the hard-linked energy-economic model, SATIMGE.
09 July 2020
climate
Research seminar
Channing Ardnt, workstream leader in the SA-TIED programme and divisional director of environmental and production technology at the International
01 July 2020
climate
Blog
Channing Arndt and Sherman Robinson
In trying to limit the spread of COVID-19, policymakers globally have the difficult task of balancing the positive health effects of lockdowns agai
24 June 2020
climate
Working paper
Impact of Covid-19 on the South African economy - An initial analysis
Channing Arndt, Rob Davies, Sherwin Gabriel, Laurence Harris, Konstantin Makrelov, Boipuso Modise, Sherman Robinson, Witness Simbanegavi, Dirk van Seventer, and Lillian Anderson
This paper reports ‘first pass’ estimates of the costs of the lock-down implemented by the South African government beginning on 27 March 2020. It...
30 April 2020
macroeconomics
climate
Working paper
Deciphering the biodiversity-production mutualism in the global food security debate
Ralf Seppelt, Channing Arndt, Michael Beckmann, Emily A. Martin, and Tom Hertel
Without large changes in consumption as well as sharp reductions of food waste and post-harvest losses, agricultural production must grow to meet...
30 April 2020
climate
Working paper
Modelling the costs of constraining the transition to renewable energy in South Africa
Bruno Merven, Faaiqa Hartley, Sherman Robinson and Channing Arndt
For decades cheaper and easily available fossil fuels have underpinned the energy system of South Africa and inhibited the potential for achieving a...
25 March 2020
climate
Working paper
The changing nature of hydroclimatic risks across Southern Africa
C. Adam Schlosser, Andrei Sokolov, Ken Strzepek, Tim Thomas, Xiang Gao, and Channing Arndt
This study presents results from a large ensemble of projected changes in seasonal precipitation and near-surface air temperature changes for the...
25 March 2020
climate
Working paper
Long term modelling of household demand and its implications for energy planning
Bruno Merven, Faaiqa Hartley and Jules Schers
This paper proposes an alternative method for modelling long term changes in household consumption in computable general equilibrium models. The...
20 March 2020
climate
Working paper
Global land reform experiences: A review for South Africa
Rob Davies, Katrina Kosec, Ephraim Nkonya, and Jie Song
This paper reviews land reform in six emerging market economies with some similarities to South Africa, and in sub-Saharan African countries, which...
20 March 2020
climate
Working paper
South African agricultural productivity in the global context: Comparisons using FAO data
Channing Arndt and Alejandro Nin Pratt
This paper seeks to address the following questions: (a) How productive is South Africa’s agricultural sector? (b) How does it compare to other...
20 March 2020
climate
Conference
SA-TIED participated in a two-day conference on ‘Inclusive and Sustainable Economic Development – Envisioning Wealth for All’ at the Bingu Internat
19 March 2020
climate