Macro-fiscal analysis
Technical note

Modelling the effects of COVID-19 on the South African economy - a technical guide to the scenario builder

Rob Davies and Dirk van Seventer
May 2020

There is a demand for quick studies evaluating the economic impact of the lockdowns used by many governments to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic. Multiplier analysis is an appropriate method for examining the impacts of the lockdowns, particularly in the short run when both prices and technology are relatively fixed. This technical report provides a guide to an economywide model that applies the approach to South Africa by using a social accounting matrix. The report provides a brief explanation of the theory behind the approach. It then gives a detailed guide to the framework as implemented in Microsoft Excel. Although it was developed for a specific application in South Africa, it may be useful in other circumstances.



COVID Impact Multiplier Model SA.xlsx  
COVID Multiplier Quarterly Model Scn1_v7.xlsx 
COVID Multiplier Quarterly Model Scn2_v7.xlsx 
COVID Multiplier Quarterly Model Scn3_v7.xlsx 
COVID Multiplier Quarterly Model Shocks and Results_v7.xlsx