Macro-fiscal analysis and policy modelling

South Africa’s economy experienced a particularly steep decline —relative to other emerging markets— during the 2009 Global Financial Crisis. These economic challenges were exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and impact South Africa’s ability to expand health coverage, decrease unemployment, and increase start-up and entrepreneurship rates.

The work stream on Macro-fiscal analysis and policy modelling will improve policymakers’ and institutions’ abilities to carefully assess the risks and opportunities of the macroeconomic policies intended to solve South Africa’s economic problems. Through its efforts to improve the macroeconomic modeling capacity of the institutions responsible for economic policy, the work stream will strengthen decision-making and contribute to broader economic stability and growth in South Africa.

Additional work includes:

  • evaluation of coordination between macroeconomic policy components: their impact on each other and overall macroeconomic outcomes
  • evaluation of the conduct of fiscal policy against its stated objectives
  • evaluation of the Reserve Bank’s conduct of monetary policy against its stated objectives
  • improving our ability to model reality in macro simulations
  • estimation of the determinants of the yield curve and optimal debt management

Outputs

One of the primary goals of this work stream is to improve the flow of information from academics working on policy-relevant and evidence-based research to actual policymakers. As a continuation of SA-TIED Phase I, the macro-fiscal work stream will focus on four broad areas of policy:

  • fiscal policy (public investment and debt, tax policy, and expenditure)
  • monetary policy (including inflation targeting and exchange rate policy)
  • micro- and macroprudential policy
  • coordination of macroeconomic policy and its impact on savings, investment, and the balance of payments
Technical workshop
4 Nov 2024 / 09:00 to 8 Nov 2024 / 17:00
Macro-fiscal analysis
SA-TIED, in partnership with the University of Pretoria, will host the National Treasury Time Series Econometrics Workshop from 4 to 8 November 2024. This workshop is the first in a two-part series aimed at developing...
Working paper
Philippe Burger
The public-debt-to-GDP ratio in South Africa increased from 26 per cent in the 2008/09 fiscal year to 73.9 per cent in 2023/24, raising fears that fiscal policy is not sustainable. This raises the question: did...
September 2024
Macro-fiscal analysis
News
SA-TIED
On 2 August 2024, SA-TIED research was presented at a Government Technical Advisory Centre seminar that reflected on the state of South Africa's economy, 30 years into democracy. Joshua Budlender, a Postdoctoral Research Fellow at...
AUGUST 2024
Labour market and inequality
Macro-fiscal analysis
Blog
Abishek Kumar, Sushanta Mallick and Abena Larbi-Odam
In recent years, governments worldwide witnessed a surge in debt levels . According to the Institute of International Finance, global debt reached a staggering USD 315 trillion in early 2024 , with sizable increases in...
AUGUST 2024
Macro-fiscal analysis
Working paper
Joshua Budlender
South Africa frequently experiences rolling blackouts (‘load shedding’) due to shortfallsin electricity generation. This is a common problem across the developing world, and yet thedevelopmental impacts of insufficient and unstable electricity supply, and the benefits...
JULY 2024
Macro-fiscal analysis
In the media
SA-TIED
In his latest article covered by Business Live, Philippe Burger discusses tackling fiscal fatigue in South Africa. He examines government finances and fiscal policy, highlighting the factors behind rising public debt, including low GDP growth...
JUNE 2024
Macro-fiscal analysis
News
SA-TIED
An SA-TIED work-in-progress Working Paper was presented at the Conference of the International Association for Applied Econometrics (IAAE China 2024) from June 7 to June 9 by SA-TIED Research Fellow, Richard Kima. The working paper...
JUNE 2024
Macro-fiscal analysis
In the media
SA-TIED
The SA-TIED Working Paper titled " Watts happening to work? The labour market effects of South Africa's electricity crisis" has received significant media attention. This paper explores the impact of frequent electricity outages (load shedding)...
May 2024
Macro-fiscal analysis
Blog
Richard Kima
In 2024, central banks worldwide are confronted with the challenges of juggling inflation control , economic growth, and the preservation of financial stability. A new report from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social...
MAY 2024
Macro-fiscal analysis
Working paper
Abhishek Kumar and Sushanta Mallick
Given the rise in the government debt level in recent times, this paper aims to examine the effect of an increase in government size on risk premium and its transmission in the economy. We jointly...
APRIL 2024
Macro-fiscal analysis