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Working paper
The public-debt-to-GDP ratio in South Africa increased from 26 per cent in the 2008/09 fiscal year to 73.9 per cent in 2023/24, raising fears that fiscal policy is not sustainable. This raises the question: did...
September 2024
Macro-fiscal analysis
Working paper
We use individual-level tax administrative data to estimate personal income inequality among the tax-compliant population in South Africa over the period 2011–21. Our results indicate that inequality of this population rose slightly over the period...
SEPTEMBER 2024
Labour market and inequality
Working paper
Refunds are an essential feature of well-functioning VAT systems and take up a sizeable portion of government spending. In South Africa, refunds amount to 50 per cent of gross VAT collection, representing a substantial transfer...
SEPTEMBER 2024
Public revenue
Working paper
In this paper, the authors use a static fiscal incidence analysis model to evaluate the poverty and inequality impacts of using fiscal policy to finance expanded social spending in South Africa. They assess three methods...
SEPTEMBER 2024
Labour market and inequality
Working paper
South Africa’s current electricity crises have worsened, placing the country on an uncertain and turbulent economic trajectory. To identify the manufacturing sub-sectors that are most vulnerable to this crises, we use the input–output matrices for...
JUNE 2024
Macro-fiscal analysis
Working paper
This paper reviews the extent of hybrid energy- and climate-economy modelling within South Africa. Only a small number of hybrid climate-economy models exist, with SATIMGE being the most developed model of this type used for...
May 2024
Climate and energy
Working paper
South Africa frequently experiences rolling blackouts (‘load shedding’) due to shortfallsin electricity generation. This is a common problem across the developing world, and yet thedevelopmental impacts of insufficient and unstable electricity supply, and the benefits...
JULY 2024
Macro-fiscal analysis
Working paper
Rising levels of income inequality and tight government budgets have spurred discussions in many developing nations about how to appropriately tax high-income earners. In this paper, we study taxpayer responses to an increase in the...
June 2024
Public revenue
Working paper
We estimate structural, materials, and labour markups for the South African economy at the three-digit industry level for 2012–19. The fall in structural labour and materials markups found for the numerical majority of industries are...
MAY 2024
Enterprise development
Working paper
Multinational profit shifting is a major concern for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Many have enacted anti-profit shifting rules in order to constrain this type of tax avoidance behaviour. Yet not much is known on...
MAY 2024
Public revenue
Working paper
Given the rise in the government debt level in recent times, this paper aims to examine the effect of an increase in government size on risk premium and its transmission in the economy. We jointly...
APRIL 2024
Macro-fiscal analysis
Working paper
Rising globalization has exerted a downward pressure on global tariffs, thereby eroding tariff revenues in developing nations. We analyse how gains from lowering import tariffs are distributed within the firm and the corresponding tax (base)...
APRIL 2024
Public revenue
Working paper
Frequent electricity outages threaten to impede the benefits of expanded access achieved by many developing countries in recent decades. A large literature documents these negative effects, however almost none consider labour market effects. This paper...
APRIL 2024
Macro-fiscal analysis
Working paper
Using highly disaggregated customs-transaction-level data, we study the importer price effects of tariffs in the context of preferential trade agreements for South African imports of frozen bone-in chicken. We focus first on the firm-level impact...
March 2024
Enterprise development
Working paper
Addressing unemployment and income inequalities in transport and land-use policies is important, particularly in South Africa, which is currently experiencing one of the highest unemployment rates and income inequality in the world. This research investigates...
December 2023
Labour market and inequality
Working paper
In this paper we explore options for augmenting South Africa’s personal income tax revenue using two microsimulation models: PITMOD simulates the personal income tax system and is underpinned by a dataset comprising a full extract...
December 2023
Public revenue