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Working paper
Aggregate consumption typically exceeds 60 per cent of GDP and should be pivotal in central bank policy models. Most use semi-structural macro-models, yet consumption is usually inadequately specified. We use a systems approach to estimate...
February 2025
Macro-fiscal analysis
Working paper
The effects of minimum wages on workers and firms depend on enforcement and compliance. While most research examines local determinants, this paper explores whether international market enforcement influences minimum wage impacts. In South Africa farmers...
March 2025
Enterprise development
Working paper
This report explores strategies for improving education outcomes in South Africa, with a view to strengthening economic growth and employment over the long run. It argues that the key to more rapid educational progress—both in...
February 2025
Macro-fiscal analysis
Working paper
The objective of this paper is to consider whether the inflation target of the South African Reserve Bank, which is currently between 3% and 6%, should be lowered to something closer to that of South...
February 2025
Macro-fiscal analysis
Working paper
South Africa’s grid remains unstable and characterized by frequent power cuts. Employing a generalized difference-in-difference approach, this paper examines the implications of South Africa’s electricity crises on jobs, capital investment, and exporting across manufacturing firms...
December 2024
Enterprise development
Working paper
The world has faced an increasing number of global shocks that have resulted in large and unpredictable changes in global prices, particularly of food. These increases, coupled with the negative impacts of shocks to economic...
December 2024
Labour market and inequality
Working paper
We find that women sorting into lower wage firms explains nearly half of the gender wage gap in South Africa, using matched employer-employee panel data covering the universe of formal sector workers. Sorting varies considerably...
December 2024
Labour market and inequality
Working paper
This study examines the sectoral impacts of electricity supply shortages in South Africa, using the cost share information available from the 2015 social accounting matrix. A simulation conducted under each of two technological assumptions, Cobb-Douglas...
December 2024
Macro-fiscal analysis
Working paper
This study examines the impact of tax incentives on charitable donations within South Africa, with a focus on donations declared on individuals’ tax returns. Leveraging the universe of South African tax administrative data spanning over...
December 2024
Public revenue
Working paper
This study examines how different policy mix regimes affect the impact of recent US contractionary monetary policy on South Africa’s inflation and business cycles. The study uses a small open economy New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic...
November 2024
Macro-fiscal analysis
Working paper
The public-debt-to-GDP ratio in South Africa increased from 26 per cent in the 2008/09 fiscal year to 73.9 per cent in 2023/24, raising fears that fiscal policy is not sustainable. This raises the question: did...
September 2024
Macro-fiscal analysis
Working paper
We use individual-level tax administrative data to estimate personal income inequality among the tax-compliant population in South Africa over the period 2011–21. Our results indicate that inequality of this population rose slightly over the period...
SEPTEMBER 2024
Labour market and inequality
Working paper
Refunds are an essential feature of well-functioning VAT systems and take up a sizeable portion of government spending. In South Africa, refunds amount to 50 per cent of gross VAT collection, representing a substantial transfer...
SEPTEMBER 2024
Public revenue
Working paper
In this paper, the authors use a static fiscal incidence analysis model to evaluate the poverty and inequality impacts of using fiscal policy to finance expanded social spending in South Africa. They assess three methods...
SEPTEMBER 2024
Labour market and inequality
Working paper
In this paper, we use the new economic geography (NEG) framework to estimate the extent to which spatial wage disparities in the South African manufacturing sector are an outcome of economic forces such as market...
August 2024
Labour market and inequality
Working paper
South Africa’s current electricity crises have worsened, placing the country on an uncertain and turbulent economic trajectory. To identify the manufacturing sub-sectors that are most vulnerable to this crises, we use the input–output matrices for...
JUNE 2024
Macro-fiscal analysis