Working paper
Ewa Karwowski, Hanna Szymborska, Keagile Lesame, and Tlhologelo Thoka
Globally, corporate cash holdings have risen since the 1980s. In South Africa, some commentators have accused corporations of engaging in an ‘investment strike’, while others see corporate liquidity as a precaution against systemic uncertainty. We...
August 2022
Enterprise development
Working paper
Ihsaan Bassier, Joshua Budlender, and Maya Goldman
Up-to-date, nationally representative household income/expenditure data are crucial to estimating poverty during the COVID-19 pandemic and to policy-making more broadly, but South Africa lacks such data. We present new pandemic poverty estimates, simulating incomes in...
July 2022
Macro-fiscal analysis
Working paper
Roy Havemann and Hylton Hollander
South Africa runs a primary fiscal deficit and the long-term interest rate on government borrowing, r, is greater than the long-term economic growth rate, g. Without intervention, debt will continue to rise until there is...
June 2022
Macro-fiscal analysis
Working paper
Patrick Honohan and Athanasios Orphanides
This paper reviews South Africa’s monetary policy since 2007 and makes recommendations towards improving the inflation-targeting framework currently in place. Following a surge in inflation into double digits in 2007/08, the South African Reserve Bank...
March 2022
Macro-fiscal analysis
Working paper
Michael Kilumelume, Bruno Morando, Carol Newman, and John Rand
Extractive industries form an important part of the economy for many developing countries, but their impact on growth and welfare remains understudied. With global efforts to transition to net-zero carbon emissions in the coming decades...
February 2022
Enterprise development
Working paper
Ricardo Hausmann, Federico Sturzenegger, Patricio Goldstein, Frank Muci, and Douglas Barrios
This study analyses the performance of macroeconomic policy in South Africa in 2007–2020 and outlines challenges for policy in the coming decade. After remarkable economic growth in 1997–07, South Africa’s progress slowed dramatically in 2009...
February 2022
Macro-fiscal analysis
Working paper
Michael Kilumelume, Bruno Morando, Carol Newman, and John Rand
An often-neglected potential negative consequence of tariffs is the impact they may have on the misallocation of factor inputs. Trade protection can provide space for domestic firms to increase prices and mark-ups, allowing low-productivity firms...
December 2021
Enterprise development
Working paper
Amina Ebrahim, C. Friedrich Kreuser, and Michael Kilumelume
This paper presents version 4.0 of the CIT-IRP5 firm-level panel dataset. Version 4.0 is the latest edition of the firm-level component of the combined administrative data using sources from the South African Revenue Service. We...
December 2021
Enterprise development
Working paper
Maya Goldman, Ihsaan Bassier, Joshua Budlender, Lindi Mzankomo, Ingrid Woolard, and Murray Leibbrandt
We use a fiscal incidence model based on the South African 2014/15 Living Conditions Survey to simulate the poverty reduction impacts of a selection of medium-to-long-term social grant options with the goal of replacing the...
November 2021
Public revenue
Labour market and inequality
Working paper
Hylton Hollander
Debt-financed fiscal stimulus programmes directly stimulate aggregate demand through government expenditure or tax cuts, but their effectiveness is highly dependent on direct crowding out of private sector expenditure, spillover effects to the private sector through...
October 2021
Macro-fiscal analysis