Part 2 — Quantifying the macro and socioeconomic benefits of a transition to renewable energy in South Africa

Abstract: This paper assesses the economic impacts of increased variable renewable energy deployment in South Africa for both conservative and optimistic solar PV and wind cost estimates relative to a less ambitious, constrained RE deployment programme as currently envisioned by government in its electricity planning. A linked energy-economic model is used, allowing for a consistent assessment of the economy-wide impacts of changes in the energy sector. The research finds that removing the constraints on renewable energy deployment leads to increases in real GDP and employment under conservative renewable energy costs (and to greater ones under optimistic costs), despite a decline in coal production and employment.

Keywords: Renewables, linked modelling, energy, economic impacts, computable general equilibrium