Private transport modelled in SATIMGE and the socio-economic impacts of electric vehicles in South Africa

This paper presents an alternative methodology to modelling private transport in the hard-linked energy-economic model, SATIMGE. The methodology considers a shift from total fuel consumption in the economic model to end-use energy consumption for the private transport sector. The results show an improved synergy between the energy and economic models in the hard-linked model. The paper uses the new model to assess the energy, emissions and economic impacts of electric vehicle adoption in South Africa. The results show that shifting from traditional fossil fuel technologies to cleaner alternatives are beneficial for emissions reductions without being harmful to economic growth over the long term. The impact is, however, dependent on the rebound effect of behavioural changes to fuel economy improvements.