Working paper
Shakeba Foster
This paper investigates the role of firm characteristics in driving wage inequality and firm wage premia in the South African labour market. The Abowd, Kramarz, and Margolis (AKM) and Kline, Saggio, and Sølvsten (KSS) regression-based...
October 2023
Labour market and inequality
Working paper
Philippe Burger
The South African constitution is considered progressive and transformative in intention due to its inclusion of socioeconomic rights, such as the right to education, land, food, and healthcare. However, some of these rights are qualified...
October 2023
Macro-fiscal analysis
Working paper
Michelle Pleace, Matthew Clance and Nicky Nicholls
The attainment of financial independence by women holds significant importance for women’s empowerment and has implications for the increasing prevalence of female-headed households in the country. Previous estimates of the gender wage gap in South...
October 2023
Labour market and inequality
Working paper
Kate Orkin, Maya Goldman, Brynde Kreft, Ntuthuko Hlela, Jessica Nicklin, Ingrid Woolard, and Murray Leibbrandt
The special COVID-19 Social Relief of Distress grant (hereafter ‘SRD’) is an excellent investment of government spending because it reduces poverty and can increase job search. The SRD in its current form has led to...
OCTOBER 2023
Labour market and inequality
Working paper
Gideon du Rand, Hylton Hollander, and Dawie van Lill
A critical requirement for efficient fiscal policy is a reliable understanding of its impact on the aggregate economy for different policy instruments and under different economic conditions. Indeed, there is strong evidence to suggest that...
AUGUST 2023
Macro-fiscal analysis
Working paper
Krige Siebrits and Estian Calitz
This paper discusses the rationale and options for a fiscal anchor for South Africa and its potential for restoring and maintaining fiscal sustainability. It argues that a well designed fiscal anchor can be useful in...
AUGUST 2023
Macro-fiscal analysis
Working paper
Gideon du Rand, Hylton Hollander, and Dawie van Lill
In this study, we provide a comprehensive estimation of the contemporary Phillips curve relationship in the South African economy using a novel deep learning technique. Our approach incorporates multiple measures of economic slack/tightness and inflation...
June 2023
Macro-fiscal analysis
Working paper
Andrew R. Donaldson
Andrew R. Donaldson March 2023 Tax administration statistics now provide considerably more complete and reliable measures of South African personal income and its distribution than the available household or other survey sources. However, there are...
March 2023
Labour market and inequality
Working paper
Ewa Karwowski, Hanna Szymborska, Keagile Lesame, and Tlhologelo Thoka
Globally, corporate cash holdings have risen since the 1980s. In South Africa, some commentators have accused corporations of engaging in an ‘investment strike’, while others see corporate liquidity as a precaution against systemic uncertainty. We...
August 2022
Enterprise development
Working paper
Ihsaan Bassier, Joshua Budlender, and Maya Goldman
Up-to-date, nationally representative household income/expenditure data are crucial to estimating poverty during the COVID-19 pandemic and to policy-making more broadly, but South Africa lacks such data. We present new pandemic poverty estimates, simulating incomes in...
July 2022
Macro-fiscal analysis
Working paper
Roy Havemann and Hylton Hollander
South Africa runs a primary fiscal deficit and the long-term interest rate on government borrowing, is greater than the long-term economic growth rate, Without intervention, debt will continue to rise until there is a disorderly...
June 2022
Macro-fiscal analysis
Working paper
Patrick Honohan and Athanasios Orphanides
This paper reviews South Africa’s monetary policy since 2007 and makes recommendations towards improving the inflation-targeting framework currently in place. Following a surge in inflation into double digits in 2007/08, the South African Reserve Bank...
March 2022
Macro-fiscal analysis
Working paper
Michael Kilumelume, Bruno Morando, Carol Newman, and John Rand
Extractive industries form an important part of the economy for many developing countries, but their impact on growth and welfare remains understudied. With global efforts to transition to net-zero carbon emissions in the coming decades...
February 2022
Enterprise development
Working paper
Ricardo Hausmann, Federico Sturzenegger, Patricio Goldstein, Frank Muci, and Douglas Barrios
This study analyses the performance of macroeconomic policy in South Africa in 2007–2020 and outlines challenges for policy in the coming decade. After remarkable economic growth in 1997–07, South Africa’s progress slowed dramatically in 2009...
February 2022
Macro-fiscal analysis