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Working paper
We employ a micro founded and stock and flow consistent model in the tradition of Backus et al. (1980) to study the impact of higher leverage ratio on the South African economy. The model provides...
March, 2019
Macro-fiscal analysis
Working paper
Monetary policy is believed to have a disproportionate effect on firms depending on their size. Financially constrained firms with limited access to capital markets are expected to be more sensitive to changes in interest rates...
March, 2019
Macro-fiscal analysis
Working paper
This paper investigates whether Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries that are vulnerable to changes in oil prices could instead substitute oil and petroleum products with biofuels and gas from within the region. A pooled...
March, 2019
Phase 1 regional growth
Working paper
I provide a retrospective assessment of the effects of trade policies on South African manufacturing since the transition to democracy, examining the differences and commonalities in the views of economists in favour and against an...
March, 2019
Macro-fiscal analysis
Working paper
In spite of existence of trade arrangements including that of having a common market, trade patterns are low within EAC. Thus, the record of trade among members has been a sobering one when in comparison...
March, 2019
Phase 1 regional growth
Working paper
This paper combines the economics conflict deterrence literature with the robust literature on economic integration agreements, connecting the once separate fields. This paper uses the gravity model on a panel dataset containing all of the...
March, 2019
Phase 1 regional growth
Working paper
This study employs traditional autoregressive and vector autoregressive forecasting models, as well as machine learning methods of forecasting, in order to compare the performance of each of these techniques. Each technique is used to forecast...
March, 2019
Macro-fiscal analysis
Working paper
In the study, I use the Boone indicator to explore competition dynamics in the South African loan market. Using a standard pooled OLS estimation, I find that competition in the loan market has been improving...
March, 2019
Macro-fiscal analysis
Working paper
This paper sets out to ascertain the appropriateness of the Basel III macro-prudential policy mechanisms as South African (SA) bank distance-to-default (DTD) determinants. Using a hybrid model embedded within a linear dynamic panel-data estimation technique...
March, 2019
Macro-fiscal analysis
Working paper
Various policies are being implemented in Tanzania to expand the agro-processing sector. The study evaluates the role that agro-processing activities can play in industrialization and economic transformation of the Tanzanian economy and the impact of...
March, 2019
Phase 1 regional growth
Working paper
South Africa faces many challenges, including modest economic growth and negative structural change, as well as high unemployment and inequality, and persistent poverty. Urbanization over the last two decades is an additional concern. Migration and...
March, 2019
Macro-fiscal analysis
Journal article
South Africa has been facing significant challenges in meeting demands in its water and energy sectors in recent years and planning for both sectors has mostly been done separately. The City of Cape Town has...
March, 2019
Climate and energy
Working paper
This paper concerns the exploration of the efficiency effects of regional economic integration at the level of each member country. In specific, the question addressed is: does regional economic integration improve the economic efficiency of...
March, 2019
Phase 1 regional growth
Working paper
Regional integration is making steady progress in Africa and a key objective is to improve the prospects for industrialisation by expanding the regional market. The paper draws on a combination of trade data analysis and...
March, 2019
Phase 1 regional growth
Working paper
The paper examines the incidence and employment impacts of the Employment Tax Incentive, a South African wage subsidy system that is targeted at the employers of low-wage youth. The paper uses a triple differences strategy...
March, 2019
Public revenue
Working paper
The availability of anonymized individual tax return data can contribute to a deeper understanding of the drivers behind the high levels of inequality and unemployment in South Africa. In the recent past, researchers have examined...
March, 2019
Public revenue