Working paper
By Teboho Bosiu
According to the macroeconomic theory of aggregate demand, low real interest rates imply a low cost of borrowing for firms, which encourages them to increase the level of investment in the economy, and thus improve...
May 2018
Macro-fiscal analysis
Working paper
Ricardo Hausmann, Federico Sturzenegger, Patricio Goldstein, Frank Muci, and Douglas Barrios
This study analyses the performance of macroeconomic policy in South Africa in 2007–2020 and outlines challenges for policy in the coming decade. After remarkable economic growth in 1997–07, South Africa’s progress slowed dramatically in 2009...
February 2022
Macro-fiscal analysis
Working paper
by Sithembiso Mtanga and Richard McCamel
This paper provides an overview of the structure, key functions, and characteristics of the motorcycle parts and aftermarket industries in Southern Africa in order to identify challenges to and opportunities for growth in these industries...
April 2019
Phase 1 regional growth
Working paper
by Dirk van Seventer and Rob Davies
Examining the economy-wide consequences of South Africa following a similar trajectory of labour market polarization to the rest of the world requires an appropriate database for an economy-wide policy analysis framework. This paper describes how...
September 2019
Macro-fiscal analysis
Working paper
Ada Jansen, Winile Ngobeni, Alexius Sithole, and Wynnon Steyn
A key objective of many governments is to improve tax revenue mobilization. One way to achieve this is by improving tax compliance. This requires accurate knowledge of the tax gap, i.e. the difference between what...
April 2020
Public revenue
Journal article
Channing Arndt, Rob Davies, Sherwin Gabriel, Laurence Harris, Konstantin Makrelov, Sherman Robinson, Stephanie Levy, Witness Simbanegavi, Dirk van Seventer, and Lillian Anderson
Absent vaccines and pharmaceutical interventions, the only tool available to mitigate its demographic effects is some measure of physical distancing, to reduce contagion by breaking social and economic contacts. Policy makers must balance the positive...
July 2020
Climate and energy
Working paper
Hayelom Yrgaw Gereziher and Naser Yenus Nuru
This paper estimates the output cost of fighting inflation—the sacrifice ratio—for the South African economy using quarterly data spanning the period 1998Q1–2019Q3. To compute the sacrifice ratio, the structural vector autoregressive model developed by Cecchetti...
January 2021
Macro-fiscal analysis
Working paper
by Konstantin Makrelov, Channing Arndt, Rob Davies, and Laurence Harris
This paper presents a financial-real stock-and-flow-consistent model of the South African economy. The model dynamics build on the simple computable general equilibrium (CGE) model developed by Devarajan and Go (1998) and incorporate elements of dynamic...
January 2018
Macro-fiscal analysis
Working paper
Bruno Merven, Faaiqa Hartley, Andrew Marquard, Fadiel Ahjum, Jesse Burton, Alison Hughes, Gregory Ireland, Bryce McCall and Jules Schers
The Paris Agreement calls for a reduction in global emissions to limit the global temperature increase in this century to 2oC (above preindustrial levels), while pursuing the means to limit the increase to 1.5oC. This...
May 2021
Climate and energy